Iowa and NH- No Longer determining things
You gotta love conventional media wisdom. Not only did most people get it wrong before Iowa this year, they jumped to the next bandwagon and got it wrong in NH.
It is obvious that in the first two contests that no winner is the victor- only the issue: CHANGE.
Hillary won because she came out big on Monday evening sounding her change. That gave voters what they wanted to hear. Obama and Edwards did that in Iowa giving both of them surprise finishes.
For Republicans- it was obvious that Huckabee shows that the evangelicals will not be taken lightly this election. It will most likely be a bitter battle between him and Mitt Romney in the end. John McCain had his last hurrah and it is very unlikely he will carry this momentum too much further. Guiliani barely registered in these contests and it is a huge gamble on his part. The only thing he can hope for is for Huckabee to flame out and fight it out with Romney. His big state later strategy has cost him a valuable voice in the proceedings early on. Other candidates will have momentum and he will have to start.
Huckabee winning in Iowa, to me, was also not much of a surprise. He has a message of change as well. It will only get stronger as evengelicals and other conservatives hear his crossover appeal of limited government and a CHANGED foreign policy. That gives Huckabee a much more uphill battle because of his party's status quo branch, the economic royalists.
Here are the numbers you really need to know (not some ridiculously sensational media numbers): 2025 and 1259 These are the Democratic and Republican numbers of needed delegates to the national convention. They are also the ones you especially need to know if things do not get decided fron now until then.
It is obvious that in the first two contests that no winner is the victor- only the issue: CHANGE.
Hillary won because she came out big on Monday evening sounding her change. That gave voters what they wanted to hear. Obama and Edwards did that in Iowa giving both of them surprise finishes.
For Republicans- it was obvious that Huckabee shows that the evangelicals will not be taken lightly this election. It will most likely be a bitter battle between him and Mitt Romney in the end. John McCain had his last hurrah and it is very unlikely he will carry this momentum too much further. Guiliani barely registered in these contests and it is a huge gamble on his part. The only thing he can hope for is for Huckabee to flame out and fight it out with Romney. His big state later strategy has cost him a valuable voice in the proceedings early on. Other candidates will have momentum and he will have to start.
Huckabee winning in Iowa, to me, was also not much of a surprise. He has a message of change as well. It will only get stronger as evengelicals and other conservatives hear his crossover appeal of limited government and a CHANGED foreign policy. That gives Huckabee a much more uphill battle because of his party's status quo branch, the economic royalists.
Here are the numbers you really need to know (not some ridiculously sensational media numbers): 2025 and 1259 These are the Democratic and Republican numbers of needed delegates to the national convention. They are also the ones you especially need to know if things do not get decided fron now until then.
posted by Amos at 9:07 AM
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