Obama doing some good things, some bad...

He's Just Not There Yet (If "There" is indeed where he is headed...)

Barack Obama sometimes shows that he gets it (that is, the continuing crass cycles of national politics), sometimes, his real inexperience shows. I must say it is inexperience because he has shown little in policy outcome. Reading his remarks or watching him speak, I can see an idealistic change the system premise, but it becomes muddled as he uses consultant, feel-good language or over-used Bush Admin. approved Washington dialogue (explained further on in this post.)

It is still unclear whether or not Obama is what so many claim him to be. He has had a few moments of freshness and frankness, but far more moments of recycled comments and phrases that Washington pollsters seem to think Americans want to hear on specific issues.

It is certain that activists see him as new and definitely are projecting their hopes and dreams for a new, better, and functioning democratic (small and big D- democratic)system.

Recently, Obama blamed Bush for the state of Mideast diplomacy in the Middle East, but more credits this administration the ascension of Iran in this dangerous game.
But let's look in brief at Obama'scomments::

Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama on Friday blamed Bush Administration failings in Iraq for strengthening the strategic position of Iran, which he says must be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Illinois senator said that means "direct engagement" with Iran similar to the meetings with the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.

It is a bit obvious for even casual international observers to to realize hardline politics is almost self-fulfilling when it comes to diplomacy. If one takes the "hardline" with another country and uses every possible policy to further threaten the existence of another state, that state will no doubt have to repsond to save itself from internally collapsing. (And this is where a conservatives inserts the Reagan argument. Forget it friend, Reagan dropped the hardline and talked to Gorbachev.)

But then Obama goes and says this, sounding just like Bush (and every other fool who feels the need to appease certain lobbies with whom they speak):

"While we should take no option, including military action, off the table, sustained and aggressive diplomacy combined with tough sanctions should be our primary means to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons," Obama said.

Wow! That will do wonders to speed up any compromises. If Obama wants America to move on past to the current stolid and static state of Washington affairs, then he's got dump this type of talk. What do I mean, you ask? First off, it is a given that America and/or Iran hold the right to engage in conflcit when the leaders of these countries feel that it will protect the existence of their regimes or enhance their strength. That is given. We never rule this out. Americans get it, start acting like it, you'll win over alot more voters. Second Obama would benefit to stand in front of a popular lobby and tell them that Israel doesn't deserve blank checks in "defending" itself. We guarantee its protection, but we don't do its bidding, simply put. It is not a total change in policy, just gives us the flexibility that Bush and so many Washington politicians claim to want in war and peace. A "Sista Souljah" moment anyone?

Bottomline: More of this

Now, keep in mind, this is the same guy that said we'd be greeted as liberators, the same guy that said that we're in the last throes. I'm sure he forecast sun today," Obama said to laughter from supporters holding campaign signs over their heads to keep dry. "When Dick Cheney says it's a good thing, you know that you've probably got some big problems."

Ridicule these terrible people, attack them. (I couldn't imagine a better way to see Bush or Cheney lose their cool from being belittled), but don't talk their Republican language. If you change the words, you change the debate, and then you it becomes possible for change.

U.S. facing recession? Last thing this country needs...

Politically though, this would end Bush. Why is there now speculation that the U.S. will finally have to pay the price of incompetentcy from our president? Alan Greenspan raised alarm this past week that the U.S. might see a recession at the end of the year.
What was his reasoning?

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the economy may fall into recession by the end of 2007, according to a published report.
Greenspan told a business conference that it's difficult to forecast the timing of recessions but that it was "possible" that one could occur later this year, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The former Fed chief, who spoke to the conference by satellite link, said the U.S. economy has been growing since 2001 and that the economy cycle is nearing an end, according to the newspaper.

"When you get this far away from a recession, invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign, for example in the U.S., profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle," the Journal reported him as saying.

Well, Shite! But not to fear, Greenspan also assessed that our economy is resilient than before.

So Here IT Comes

From the AP we learn that today China is facing a big cool down in its economy.
Today China's stock exchange took a nine percent plunge and now Wall Street is feeling it.

Wall Street fell sharply Tuesday, joining a global stock decline sparked by growing concerns that the U.S. and Chinese economies are cooling and that U.S. stocks are about to embark on a major correction. The Dow Jones industrials dropped more than 140 points.

A 9 percent slide in Chinese stocks earlier set the tone for U.S. trading, a day after investors sent Shanghai's benchmark index to a record high close.

"Corrections usually happen because of a catalyst, and this may be it," said Ed Peters, chief investment officer at PanAgora Asset Management. "The move in China was a surprise, and when a major market has a shock it ripples through the rest of the market. With all the trade that goes on with China, there tends to be a knee-jerk reaction with that kind of drop."

So let's not get too panicked. But the trend will be troubling when we have a Vice President who in Australia on a diplomatic mission had this to say about China: "China's continued fast-paced military buildup are less constructive and are not consistent with China's stated goal of a peaceful rise."

Of course What Cheney considers diplomacy is closer to a bear telling a bunny to stop moving while he has his paws on its throat.

Greenspan doesn't seem to be too concerned from an economic standpoint about the coming recession because we have such a robust and "resilient" economy. But when we consider a couple of issues (check it out here and here)which this president, unlike the rest of America, has completely ignored, things could pretty hairy, especially when we want to talk smack to China.

Let's look further: 1. Dollar not doing so well from Asia Times:

Growing political instability in the US will weigh heavily on the dollar during 2007. This weight, combined with growing political pressure for dollar devaluation and a slew of negative economic factors, is likely to prompt significant dollar depreciation against most other currencies. The dollar's decline will help send asset values in the US sharply lower and precious metals prices soaring.

Needless to say, economists can often live in theoretical worlds that don't necessarily reflect the realities of the world and life (not to say political ideology doesn't either, libertarians or communists!)Politics and environment, etc. affect the economy. Not numbers, which is why our economy does look much better than many Americans feel that it is. If our economy was truly resilient, the whole country could be feeling it, not the rich elites who are running the damn country for their own benefit.
Read the whole article. It is where things are headed. If so, that means Bush is doomed, and we are not far behind. Democrats on the other hand might enjoy political benefits because of Republic Party incompetence.

Second reason we should worry about coming recession and any racheting tensions in the global marketplace: U.S. in debt.

There are some strange facts about the asset and trade positions of the US economy in the globalizing economy. The United States runs massive and growing trade deficits, is borrowing at a clip that would arouse the suspicions of a casino pit boss, and has been selling its assets to anyone who will buy. In the past 24 months, the US balance on goods and services comes in just shy of negative-$1.5 trillion. Across the same period, the US has sunk further into debt to the rest of the world.

For 2006, exports of US$1.4378 trillion and imports of $2.2014 trillion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $763.6 billion,
$46.9 billion more than the 2005 deficit of $716.7 billion. For goods, exports were $1.0237 trillion and imports were $1.8598 trillion, resulting in a goods deficit of $836.1 billion, $53.3 billion more than the 2005 deficit of $782.7 billion.

Who owns most this debt? China... Hold on for the rollercoaster.


Update: Wow, I scooped AP.