Knockout or Scorecards
As you all know, the Pennsylvania primary held last Tuesday was considered to be a must-win contest for Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY), with a loss certain to end the race and crown Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) as the Democratic nominee against Senator John McCain (R-AZ) in the fall. As you probably also know, Senator Clinton won by a substantial margin, winning 55-45, nearly echoing her must-win in Ohio last month. So, with Senator Clinton proving to be one of the toughest outs in politics, and Senator Obama proving unable to win the states that he has to win, the Obama camp has ratcheted up its efforts to call for Senator Clinton to end the race, perhaps because she is embarrassing him with that pesky ability to win primaries.
However, my question is this: when has the candidate who is behind ever been expected to drop out of the race after posting double-digit victories in key swing states? The Obama campaign is acting indignant and arguing that Senator Clinton can't win. However, if that is the case, why not make her get out? The Obama campaign has pushed the Clinton campaign to a must-win status in six states in the primary season (New Hampshire on 1/8, California and New Jersey on 2/5, Ohio and Texas on 3/4, and Pennsylvania on 4/22), but she manages to survive because the Obama campaign has lost all six. Yes, it is true that Senator Clinton pushed Obama to that point once and failed to win (South Carolina on 1/26), but the point is that if you want credit for the knockout, you have to win the knockout. I have heard Obama supporters argue that this is a different standard. No, it isn't! The standard is 2024 delegates at the national convention. What is changing the rules is trying to argue that a campaign that is still winning has no legitimate reason for being in the race.
Well, she is still in the race for a reason, and that is because the voters have made it clear that we do not want this primary to be over just yet (Disclaimer: I voted for Senator Clinton in the PA primary). Each candidate has a substantial base of support that the other has proven unable to erode. Maybe the reason why the Obama campaign is worried is because they realize that the longer this election drags on, the longer the Clinton campaign shows its strength.
That being said, if the Obama campaign wants to get the knockout, here's a simple idea: get the knockout! There are three states left that are must-wins for Senator Clinton: Indiana on 5/6, West Virginia on 5/13, and Kentucky on 5/20. If Senator Obama wins any of these, he can rightly claim that he has done what he needs to do to prove himself worthy of the nomination. Still, if outspending your opponent nearly 3:1 and still losing big leads to tough talk like that, maybe that is showing desperation. Are they worried about a Clinton surprise showing in one of the states that Senator Obama is expected to win? Are they worried that her ability to win will lead to her having more days like her fundraising tsunami after winning the Keystone State? Either way, if you want to treat this like a boxing match, if neither candidate can get a knockout, the fight goes to the scorecards. I don't think that a TKO would prove satisfying to anyone. Senator Clinton has no reason to throw in the towel, and Senator Obama's supporters have no right to ask. There is a way to end this before Montana and South Dakota, but the ref will have to count to ten.
However, my question is this: when has the candidate who is behind ever been expected to drop out of the race after posting double-digit victories in key swing states? The Obama campaign is acting indignant and arguing that Senator Clinton can't win. However, if that is the case, why not make her get out? The Obama campaign has pushed the Clinton campaign to a must-win status in six states in the primary season (New Hampshire on 1/8, California and New Jersey on 2/5, Ohio and Texas on 3/4, and Pennsylvania on 4/22), but she manages to survive because the Obama campaign has lost all six. Yes, it is true that Senator Clinton pushed Obama to that point once and failed to win (South Carolina on 1/26), but the point is that if you want credit for the knockout, you have to win the knockout. I have heard Obama supporters argue that this is a different standard. No, it isn't! The standard is 2024 delegates at the national convention. What is changing the rules is trying to argue that a campaign that is still winning has no legitimate reason for being in the race.
Well, she is still in the race for a reason, and that is because the voters have made it clear that we do not want this primary to be over just yet (Disclaimer: I voted for Senator Clinton in the PA primary). Each candidate has a substantial base of support that the other has proven unable to erode. Maybe the reason why the Obama campaign is worried is because they realize that the longer this election drags on, the longer the Clinton campaign shows its strength.
That being said, if the Obama campaign wants to get the knockout, here's a simple idea: get the knockout! There are three states left that are must-wins for Senator Clinton: Indiana on 5/6, West Virginia on 5/13, and Kentucky on 5/20. If Senator Obama wins any of these, he can rightly claim that he has done what he needs to do to prove himself worthy of the nomination. Still, if outspending your opponent nearly 3:1 and still losing big leads to tough talk like that, maybe that is showing desperation. Are they worried about a Clinton surprise showing in one of the states that Senator Obama is expected to win? Are they worried that her ability to win will lead to her having more days like her fundraising tsunami after winning the Keystone State? Either way, if you want to treat this like a boxing match, if neither candidate can get a knockout, the fight goes to the scorecards. I don't think that a TKO would prove satisfying to anyone. Senator Clinton has no reason to throw in the towel, and Senator Obama's supporters have no right to ask. There is a way to end this before Montana and South Dakota, but the ref will have to count to ten.
posted by Albert McStephenson at 8:21 PM
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